Everyone is replaceable… but what about Chavez?

Supporters of Hugo Chavez have found it difficult to accept that he is seriously ill

Hugo Chavez – faithful to his character – is keeping his hands on the reins despite the fact that he is back in Cuba undergoing further cancer treatment. He is upholding his presence in Venezuela through numerous daily tweets, informing about money he has just approved for that and that project. The messages usually end by the phrase “Vivirimos y Venceremos” – we’ll live and we’ll win.

Although this time, he has delegated some of his powers to the vice president and finance minister, he has refused the calls from the opposition to hand over all the presidential authority during his absence. He and his entourage maintain that he is perfectly capable of continuing to lead the country and will run for another term in office next year.

“There is no doubt the president will be present at the 2012 elections and then for many years,” Jorge Giordani, the finance minister said in an interview on state television on 18 July.

However, his illness has given rise to speculation about who is going to be his successor. According to the constitution, the Vice President steps in to replace the head of state when necessary. However, Elias Jaua, second-in-command in Venezuela, refused to do so when Chavez stayed in Cuba for more then three weeks in June to have a tumour removed. The question is why: was it loyalty, insufficient self-confidence to run the country, or instructions from Chavez?

There has also been a rumour that Chavez’s brother, Adan, could replace him, like Raul Castro of Cuba, succeeded his brother Fidel when he fell ill in 2006. The New York Times dedicated an entire article to the analysis of Adan Chavez’s prospects on 28 June.

However, analysts as well as ordinary people doubt that any of Chavez’s close collaborators would be able to replace him. “I’m sorry to spoil the party, but there is not a “successor” that equals Chavez,” @FJBetancour tweeted on 9 July as one of many with similar opinion.

Then, there are those who don’t particularly like the current president. The opposition has repeatedly attempted to remove Chavez from power without success. In 2004, they organized a “Recall Referendum” to cut his mandate as president short only to see Chavez winning 59 per cent support. In 2002, Chavez was forced by the military to resign and to remove all his ministers, only to be reinstated two days later.

Eight people involved in the unsuccessful coup were sentenced to up to six years in prison in 2004. They should be out now. What has happened to them and to their intention to rid Venezuela of Chavez? Will they take their chances again now when the strongman seems to be weakened?